My Dad Helped Build North America's Oat Supply Chain: Can It Be Remade?

Originally published by Jeff Manuel on June 26, 2026. Graphic by Adam Dixon.

In the wake of headlines regarding the “Oat Mafia”—a group attempting to disrupt the existing American oat infrastructure—it is worth looking back at the history of this grain to understand if the current trend is sustainable.

For decades, the humble oat was ignored in favor of more lucrative row crops. However, the market is shifting. Driven largely by the explosion in popularity of oat milk, demand is surging.

The Rise of the "Oat Mafia"

In Minnesota, a group of upper Midwest farmers (the aforementioned "Oat Mafia") is constructing Green Acres Milling. This represents the first new oat mill built in the U.S. in several decades.

As reported by Aimee Rawlins, integrating oats into a corn-and-soybean rotation offers several agricultural advantages:

• Weed Management: Natural suppression of invasive species.
• Environmental Health: A reduction in nitrate pollution.
• Financial Hedge: Protection against the volatile pricing of chemical inputs.

Despite these benefits, farmers have struggled to sell their crops because the current infrastructure is designed for imports.

The Current Supply Chain

Currently, U.S. oat mills process raw oats into intermediate products for food giants, but they source almost exclusively from Canada.

A Family Legacy in Grain

The U.S. didn't always rely on Canada. The author's family provides a window into the transition:

My uncle, Thomas Manuel, operated a Minneapolis mill in the early 1970s that sourced all its oats domestically. My father, Kerry Manuel, spent 30 years as an oats broker, acting as the vital link between growers and industrial buyers.

Kerry Manuel was a central figure during the last major market upheaval. He and others helped architect the very supply chain that replaced American-grown oats with Canadian imports.

The Anatomy of a Decline

The disappearance of the American oat didn't happen overnight; it was a process of gradual erosion followed by a sudden collapse.

Factors of Displacement

The shift from oats to other crops can be summarized as follows:

The Role of Policy

Jonathan Coppess, director of the Gardner Agriculture Policy Program, notes that oats were a priority an afterthought in federal policy.

The "Death Spiral" of U.S. Oats:

• 1960s: Emergency feed grants essentially paid farmers to stop growing oats.
• 1970s: Secretary of Agriculture Earl Butz urged farmers to "get big or get out", favoring massive monocultures.
• 1980s: The 1985 Farm Bill introduced the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), paying farmers to leave marginal land idle—land that was frequently used for oats.

The mathematical result was devastating. The average annual decline in oat acreage was: $\text{Annual Loss} = 712,763 \text{ acres}$

As analyst Randy Strychar noted, oats lacked a powerful lobby to fight these systemic changes.

The Canadian Opportunity

While the U.S. market collapsed, companies like General Mills and Quaker still required oats. They found a solution in the Canadian prairies.

Bill Wilton, a Manitoba farmer, recalls the arrival of U.S. millers in the 1980s. They were impressed by the volume and quality of Canadian oats, which thrive in cooler climates.

Key Canadian Growing Regions:

1. Manitoba: The Red River valley.
2. Saskatchewan: Rolling hills and grasslands.
3. Alberta: The Peace River region (extending far north).

Previously, the Canadian Wheat Board controlled grain marketing and didn't prioritize oats, making them a minor crop until the U.S. demand shifted north.

Conclusion: Can the Cycle Reverse?

The "Oat Mafia" is attempting to rebuild a domestic supply chain that was systematically dismantled over forty years. Whether this movement is a permanent shift or a temporary trend remains to be seen. However, for those attempting to disrupt the current status quo, the lesson is clear: the current Canadian-centric system wasn't an accident—it was the result of deliberate policy and economic incentives.

def supply_chain_status(current_source):
    if current_source == "Canada":
        return "Resilient / Established"
    elif current_source == "USA":
        return "Emerging / Disruptive"
    else:
        return "Unknown"

print(supply_chain_status("Canada")) # Output: Resilient / Established