Critical Minerals: Strategies for Reducing U.S. Import Dependence via Recycling and Substitution

Report Reference: GAO-26-108687 | Release Date: July 22, 2026

The United States currently maintains a heavy reliance on foreign imports for critical minerals—specifically those vital to the production of semiconductors and high-capacity batteries. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has analyzed whether the adoption of substitution (using alternative materials) and recycling (recovering minerals from waste) can mitigate this vulnerability.

Executive Summary of Findings

The potential for these technologies to decrease import reliance varies significantly by industry:

Battery Sector: High near-term potential. Import reductions for specific minerals could be realized within 2 to 3 years.
Semiconductor Sector: Low near-term potential. Most technologies are years away from commercial maturity.

"Industry will not adopt substitutes until they can perform at the same level as current semiconductor materials in the intended application." — Expert testimony provided to GAO

Comparative Analysis: Batteries vs. Semiconductors

The following table summarizes the viability of these strategies across the two primary industries:

Industry	Substitution Potential	Recycling Maturity	Expected Timeline	Key Minerals Involved
Batteries	High (for specific uses)	Mature	2–3 Years	$\text{Li}$ , $\text{Co}$ , $\text{Ni}$ , $\text{Cu}$
Semiconductors	Low (performance gaps)	Pilot Stage	Long-term	$\text{Ga}$ , $\text{In}$

1. The Battery Industry

For battery technology, the GAO identified two primary paths:

A. Substitution The use of Lithium Iron Phosphate ( $\text{LiFePO}_4$ ) batteries for stationary grid storage is a viable way to reduce the need for:

Cobalt
Manganese
Nickel

Note: While effective for the grid, these substitutes are not ideal for long-haul electric vehicles because they possess a lower energy density.

B. Recycling Recycling is already a mature field utilizing processes such as chemical leaching and smelting to recover minerals at high efficiency. However, a major bottleneck exists: ~~feedstock is frequently sent to landfills or shipped overseas~~ $\rightarrow$ feedstock must be captured domestically.

2. The Semiconductor Industry

The path to independence is more complex for semiconductors.

Substitution Challenges: Minerals like gallium and indium are difficult to replace because alternatives cannot yet match their performance under identical operating conditions.
Recycling Challenges:
- Manufacturing Scrap: While a viable source, recovering these minerals is not yet a standard U.S. industrial practice.
- Electronic Waste (E-waste): Though the volume of discarded electronics is high, the actual concentration of critical minerals is low, and they are often bonded to other materials, making extraction difficult. These processes are currently in the pilot stage.

Strategic Roadmap for Import Reduction

Proposed Policy Framework

The GAO suggests four primary policy avenues to accelerate these technological shifts. While non-technological paths (like increasing domestic mining) are also being explored via executive action, the following technical policies are recommended:

Option 1: Expand Domestic Manufacturing for Substitutes

Policymakers should focus on building or converting plants to produce viable alternative technologies.

Provide financial backing for private capital investments in LFP battery plants.
Create partnerships for pilot-scale testing of semiconductor alternatives.
Consideration: These facilities are expensive and highly specialized.

Option 2: Bolster Recycling Infrastructure

To stop the export of partially processed materials, the U.S. needs a robust domestic loop.

Support private investment in new battery recycling factories.
Implement data-sharing systems for tracking manufacturing scrap.
$\text{Streamline} \rightarrow$ Review and simplify permitting and hazardous waste laws.
Consideration: Infrastructure takes a decade or more to fully deploy.

Option 3: Improve Collection and Logistics

The "feedstock" problem requires a systemic overhaul of how we handle waste.

Launch national/local e-waste collection programs with consumer education.
Offer financial incentives for companies to retain and recycle their own scrap.

Option 4: Non-Technological Alternatives

Beyond the lab, the U.S. can pursue:

Increased domestic mining operations.
Legislative mandates for mineral sourcing.

Figure 1: The idealized circular economy for critical minerals.