Lunar Impact Event: August 5, 2026

Notice: On August 5, 2026, at approximately 06:35 UTC, a discarded rocket upper stage is scheduled to collide with the moon.

While this event is dangerous entirely harmless to humans, it serves as a stark reminder of the negligence regarding the disposal of orbital debris (space junk). From a scientific perspective, the impact may yield some minor, yet interesting, data.

This marks the second time I have predicted a piece of space debris hitting the lunar surface—an occurrence that previously garnered surprising attention from the general public.

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🛰️ What exactly is this object?

The object in question is a Falcon 9 upper stage. To understand its role, one must look at the rocket's architecture:

1. First Stage: The larger booster that carries the payload to the edge of orbit before returning to Earth to land on a barge for reuse.
2. Upper Stage: The smaller section that pushes the payload into its final trajectory; this part is not reusable.

Object Specifications

The designation 2025-010D is a technical shorthand: it was the fourth piece of hardware tracked from the tenth rocket launched in 2025.

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📉 Mission Timeline & Fate of Components

After the upper stage propelled the mission components from low Earth orbit (LEO) toward the moon, the four primary elements separated. Their subsequent paths diverged significantly:

The payload canister (2025-010C) likely appeared as a bright meteor upon its atmospheric reentry. Meanwhile, the upper stage remained in a higher orbit, avoiding Earth's atmosphere but making several close approaches to both the Earth and the moon.

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🔭 Tracking and Observation

Tracking this object required a combination of professional and amateur efforts. By February 26, 2026, a total of 1,053 observations had been recorded.

Who is watching?

• Asteroid Surveys: Primarily focused on "planetary defense" (finding rocks that might hit Earth).
• Amateur Astronomers: Using advanced gear across Mississippi, Utah, Beijing, and England.

The Technical Challenge: Radar vs. Optical

Radar is highly effective for LEO debris (like lost tool bags), but the moon is roughly 400 times further away. The signal degradation is extreme:

$\text{Signal Loss} = \frac{1}{400^2} \times \frac{1}{400^2} = \frac{1}{25,600,000,000}$

Because the radar return is $\approx 25.6$ billion times fainter, telescopes are the superior tool for distant objects. Since space junk and asteroids both appear as slowly moving points of light, asteroid surveys often detect this debris incidentally.

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🧮 Predicting the Impact

In September 2025, I utilized my orbit-computation software to analyze the data, which projected the August 5, 2026, impact.

While orbital mechanics are generally predictable—governed by the gravity of the sun, planets, Earth, and moon—there is a complicating variable: Solar Radiation Pressure.

# Conceptual logic for orbital perturbation
def calculate_position(gravity, solar_pressure, time):
    # Gravity is the primary driver
    pos = gravity * time 
    # Solar pressure adds a small, unpredictable nudge
    pos += solar_pressure * time 
    return pos

Solar radiation pressure is a gentle force exerted by sunlight. Because the object tumbles, it reflects light unevenly, creating slight pushes in various directions. While we can estimate these forces with enough data, they fluctuate over time.

Conclusion: While I am confident the impact will occur near the predicted time and location, these subtle solar forces mean the exact point of impact will vary slightly from the mathematical ideal.