So You Think You Could Be An Electrician?

It is a curious phenomenon: the individuals most aggressively urging the youth to enter the skilled trades are typically those who work in white-collar environments.

The Modern Trade Narrative

There is a prevailing story circulating today that follows a specific logic:

• The Cost Crisis: Higher education costs have exploded.
• The Wage Gap: Trade salaries have surged, sometimes eclipsing those of degree holders.
• The AI Threat: Artificial Intelligence is poised to eliminate most "knowledge work."

The conclusion of this narrative is simple: Why spend $200,000 on a degree when you can become a union electrician, earn six figures, and perform labor that an algorithm cannot replicate?

There is also a distinct populist flavor to this argument. It suggests that the "B-average nerds" who coasted into lucrative office jobs are finally facing a reckoning, while the "hard-working blue-collar moderates"—the people actually building the physical world—will finally get their due.

The Advocates

Prominent figures like Mike Rowe (the former opera singer and Dirty Jobs host) champion this path. His foundation provides scholarships to steer capable students toward the trades, with a website that explicitly markets AI-proof six-figure jobs. However, there is a telling detail: Rowe, like most proponents of this narrative, holds a college degree.

Perspective from the Field

Over three decades ago, I was an apprentice. Back then, the "old-timers" didn't encourage us to stay; they badgered us to go back to school.

"Look at these hands," they would say, gesturing to their calloused, worn-down skin as a warning.

In the culture of the job site, if the veterans embraced a new apprentice quickly, it was often a sign of low intelligence. It meant the experienced workers had recognized that the kid's ceiling was construction. The veterans understood the physical brutality and the precarious nature of the rewards better than anyone.

As a former tradesman, I can tell you: the reality is far more nuanced.

The Financial Reality Check

First, the claim that trades outearn college is largely a myth. When you control for selection effects, rigorous research shows that college graduates still earn significantly more over their lifetimes.

Income and Education Comparison

While it is true that some degrees—like social work—lead to lower yields or a "collision course" with expensive, low-return graduate degrees, the general advice to attend college has remained sound for decades.

The Cost Equation

Many people focus on the "sticker price" of college, but the net_price is what actually matters. For public in-state institutions, the average net price for tuition and fees in 2024 was actually under $2,500 per year, and has been trending downward since 2016.

We can express the actual cost as: $\text{Actual Cost} = \text{Sticker Price} - (\text{Grants} + \text{Scholarships})$

The Physical Toll

Money is only one part of the equation. The other is the physical cost. When I was 20, a construction accident shattered both of my heels. My right heel had to be reconstructed using four fragments and a bone graft from my hip.

At the time, the prognosis was grim; there was a real possibility of permanent disability. When I look at my own children, I don't see "six-figure salaries"—I see The Accident.

• I imagine my daughter in a Workers' Comp rental wheelchair, heading to the liquor store for a 12-pack of Molson Canadian.
• I imagine my son needing a fan every night just to drown out the constant ringing (tinnitus) in his ears.

Risk Analysis

White-collar jobs have a negligible risk of death. Even "dangerous" gray-collar jobs, like policing, see most fatalities caused by traffic accidents rather than the inherent nature of the work. In the trades, however, the danger is often baked into the daily tasks.

Every tradesperson knows someone who has been sidelined by a long-term injury, or worse, someone who was killed on the job. Those in white-collar bubbles are simply blind to this reality.

Final Considerations

There is evidence that people in developed nations are becoming increasingly risk-averse. For many, the prospect of a non-trivial risk of death or catastrophic injury is an unacceptable trade-off for a paycheck.

Before choosing the trades, ask yourself:

• Am I prepared for the physical degradation of my body over 30 years?
• Do I accept the inherent risk of a life-altering workplace accident?
• Have I looked at the net cost of college versus the actual average earnings of this trade?
• Am I listening to the advice of people who actually have "calloused hands"?